Authors

Paula Martinez, Jeremiah Soliman

Project Description

This project analyzes the nature and scale of events in the Philippines immediately following President Rodrigo Duterte's inauguration in October 2016. Utilizing the GDELT dataset, the study aims to enhance crime prevention strategies by identifying trends in crime-related activities, such as increases in "KILL", "ARREST", "KIDNAP", and "AFFECT" events, and comparing these to historical data and regional neighbors.

Key Takeaways

1. Nature and Scale of Events in Early October 2016: The initial weeks of the Duterte administration saw a striking rise in violence-related media coverage, with "KILL" events constituting 60.84% of all reports. Additional significant findings include 18.69% of reports on arrests and smaller proportions for kidnapping, impact on society ("AFFECT"), and injuries ("WOUND"). This data underscores a shift towards heightened law enforcement and security incidents.


2. Year-over-Year Comparison to 2015: Comparative analysis with the same period in 2015 shows a significant escalation in "KILL" events, which nearly doubled, primarily linked to the administration's focus on drug-related crimes. The language used in 2016 centered on "drug suspects" and other drug-related terms, contrasting with the more general nature of violence in 2015. This period also featured increased international attention due to controversial statements by Duterte, comparing his campaign to historical atrocities such as the genocide committed against the Jews.


3. Regional Comparison in Southeast Asia: When placed in the broader Southeast Asian context, the Philippines reported a high incidence of "KILL" events, ranking second among neighboring countries, while showing one of the lowest protest rates. This could suggest either strong public support or fear related to the ongoing drug war, highlighting the unique and severe enforcement dynamics in the Philippines compared to its neighbors.