After installing a freshly built gcc, things are silently failing. cmake was the first thing I saw, but then when I tried to find out what was happening I saw gdb was also silently failing.
the most likely thing that changed between when it worked and now would be the mingw crt/etc packages were updated
dependency walker is showing libstdc++ has undefined imports __emutls_v._ZSt11_once_call and __emutls_v.Zst15_once_callable. Those symbols are present in the existing/working libstdc++-6.dll.
libstdc++-6.dll from CI rebuild of gcc has the issue. Local build of gcc after downgrading mingw packages(pacman -U /var/cache/pacman/pkg/mingw-w64-i686-*-8.0.0.5*) ongoing, but there is already a stage3 libstdc++-6.dll, which defines those symbols.